The Success Equation

Why read it

• You will understand why the shortcuts of our minds bias how we judge skill and luck
• You will learn to use statistics that track performance itself, as the Oakland A's did, to find talent that others overvalue or undervalue
• You will be able to judge whether results in an activity come mostly from skill, as in rowing races, or from luck

Who it is for

• An investor or manager judging results after a good or bad year
• A coach picking talent in a field where luck plays a part
• A reader who wants to credit skill and luck fairly

Contents

1. Introduction: Sorting the Sources of Success
2. Chapter 1: Skill, Luck, and Three Easy Lessons
3. Chapter 2: Why We’re So Bad at Distinguishing Skill from Luck
4. Chapter 3: The Luck-Skill Continuum
5. Chapter 4: Placing Activities on the Luck-Skill Continuum
6. Chapter 5: The Arc of Skill
7. Chapter 6: The Many Shapes of Luck
8. Chapter 7: What Makes for a Useful Statistic?
9. Chapter 8: Building Skill
10. Chapter 9: Dealing with Luck
11. Chapter 10: Reversion to the Mean
12. Chapter 11: The Art of Good Guesswork
13. APPENDIX

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