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The cover of More Than You Know

More Than You Know

Michael J. Mauboussin

Will you solve problems better as an investor, executive or parent by borrowing tools from many disciplines?

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At a glance

Author
Michael J. Mauboussin

Why read it

  • You will weigh the case for cognitive diversity as crucial to solving complex problems, resting on both theory and evidence
  • You will question whether expert predictions deserve your trust, drawing on research in which experts made thousands of forecasts
  • You will separate skill from luck when judging a streak of wins, in investing as in sports

Who it is for

  • An investor who wants ideas from psychology and biology
  • A manager trying to draw on a more diverse set of views
  • A curious reader who reads outside their own specialty

Contents

  1. INTRODUCTION
  2. INTRODUCTION
  3. Hit Me
  4. From Treasury to Treasure
  5. Prioritizing Process
  6. The Scouting Report
  7. Evaluating the Winners
  8. The Investment Profession Versus the Investment Business
  9. Batting with the Babe
  10. The Downside of Hardwiring
  11. Bulls, Bears, and Odds
  12. From OTC to OTB
  13. A Useful Analogy
  14. Circumstance Over Attributes
  15. The Three Steps of Theory Building
  16. When, Not What
  17. Rocket Science
  18. From Uncertainty to Probability
  19. How Predictions Change Future Payoffs
  20. Man Versus Machine
  21. Where Do Experts Do Well?
  22. Finding the Hot Shot
  23. Streaks and Skill
  24. Toss Out the Coin Toss
  25. Streaks and Luck
  26. One or One Hundred
  27. Explaining the Equity-Risk Premium
  28. The Value of Inactivity
  29. Pictures Worth a Thousand Words
  30. Management Counts
  31. Leadership
  32. Incentives
  33. Capital Allocation
  34. The Bottom Line
  35. INTRODUCTION
  36. Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers
  37. Why Money Managers Do Get Ulcers
  38. Shortening Horizons
  39. Imitating Ulysses
  40. A Tip from Shining Shoes
  41. You Can Fool Mother Nature
  42. All I Really Need to Know . . .
  43. The Psychology of Investing
  44. Emotions and Decisions
  45. Two Follows One
  46. The Affect Heuristic
  47. When the Experiential Fails
  48. Affect: Individual Versus the Collective
  49. Guppy See, Guppy Do
  50. Feedback—Negative and Positive
  51. Follow the Ant in Front of You
  52. Herding from the Grapevine
  53. Sorry Syllogism
  54. Mug’s Game?
  55. Bombs Away
  56. Money See, Money Do
  57. What Do You Expect?
  58. Speculation and Enterprise
  59. Visiting El Farol
  60. Kidding Yourself

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