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The Precipice

Toby Ord

A lucid guide to existential risks, why humanity's future is newly vulnerable, and how wiser institutions and choices can protect our longterm potential.

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8 parts, about 27 minutes to read.

Why read it

  • Begins inside a Soviet submarine, where one officer's refusal shows how fallible judgment can stand between a crisis and nuclear escalation
  • Compares natural, nuclear, climate, pandemic and artificial intelligence risks while keeping Ord's estimates subjective, approximate and response dependent
  • Moves from diagnosis to a strategy of existential security, careful technology governance and a Long Reflection before irreversible choices

Who it is for

  • Readers comparing nuclear, climate, biosecurity and artificial intelligence risks
  • Scientists and policymakers responsible for systems with cross border consequences
  • Students and donors deciding where work can reduce longterm risk

What the summary covers

  1. Power at the Precipice4 min
  2. What Existential Risk Means4 min
  3. The Natural Baseline2 min
  4. Present Human Made Dangers3 min
  5. Emerging Technologies5 min
  6. Estimating and Prioritizing Risk3 min
  7. A Strategy for Safety3 min
  8. The Future We Could Preserve3 min

Recommended by

  • Peter SingerPhilosopher and author of Animal Liberation and The Life You Can Save
    A powerfully-argued book that alerts us to what is perhaps the most important-and yet also most neglected-problem we will ever face.
  • Max TegmarkPhysicist and author of Life 3.0 and Our Mathematical Universe
    The Precipice separates science from hype and will remain the definitive work on existential risk for a long time to come.
  • Angela KaneFormer United Nations High Representative for Disarmament Affairs
    This book is a wake-up call to the existential threats of nuclear and biological weapons and the urgent need for action. A must-read that galvanizes us to play a role in addressing these risks.
  • Stuart RussellComputer scientist and author of Human Compatible and Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach
    A fascinating and persuasive guide to the most important topic of all: how our species will survive the risks we pose to our continued existence.
  • Christine PetersonCofounder of the Foresight Institute
    Toby Ord is today's Carl Sagan. Clear and inspiring, this book leaves us hopeful for a flourishing human future.

About the author

  • Toby OrdPhilosopher and senior researcher at Oxford University's AI Governance Initiative
    • Senior researcher at Oxford University's AI Governance Initiative, studying major questions facing humanity
    • His earlier research examined the ethics of global health and global poverty
    • Founded the international society Giving What We Can
    • His current research studies humanity's long term future and risks that could destroy its potential
    • Has advised the United Nations, World Health Organization, World Economic Forum and the United Kingdom Prime Minister's Office

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