Everything Is Predictable

Tom Chivers, 2024

Learn why prediction is unavoidable, how Bayesian reasoning updates uncertain beliefs, and where its tools clarify medicine, science, judgment, perception, and everyday decisions.

Get the app Read on the web

9 parts, about 22 minutes to read.

Why read it

Shows how one rule for updating beliefs, Bayes's theorem, links medical tests, courtrooms, science, forecasting and even perception
Teaches you to ask about base rates and what evidence would change your mind before trusting a positive test or a striking study
Tom Chivers mixes history, worked examples and interviews, and keeps saying where Bayesian claims about the brain remain unproven

Who it is for

Anyone who reads medical test results or research headlines
Scientists and analysts puzzled by p values and replication failures
Forecasters and decision makers working under uncertainty

What the summary covers

Prediction begins with uncertainty2 min
From games of chance to Bayes3 min
Two statistical questions3 min
Science at the significance cliff3 min
Belief becomes decision3 min
Prediction can build a model1 min
Bayes in ordinary reasoning3 min
The brain as a prediction system3 min
Useful models, revisable beliefs1 min

Recommended by

Oliver BurkemanAuthor of Four Thousand Weeks
Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting
Tim HarfordEconomist and author of The Undercover Economist
Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you
Will StorrBritish journalist and author
A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem
Oliver BurkemanAuthor of Four Thousand Weeks
Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting
Will StorrBritish journalist and author
A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem

About the author

Tom ChiversScience writer at Semafor
- Previously worked at the i, UnHerd, BuzzFeed and the Telegraph
- Won the Royal Statistical Society award for statistical excellence in journalism in 2018 and 2020, and the ABSW science journalist of the year in 2021