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The cover of Innumeracy : Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences

Innumeracy : Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences

John Allen Paulos

Why do smart people misjudge chance, risk and big numbers, and what does it cost them?

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At a glance

Author
John Allen Paulos

Why read it

  • You will stop being impressed by coincidences that are far likelier than they feel
  • You will judge a bet or a risk by its expected value instead of the surprising extremes
  • You will recognize when numbers are used to bully people into agreement and push back

Who it is for

  • Anyone who reads polls, medical results or news statistics
  • Voters weighing risks and trade offs in public policy
  • Students who feel math is not for them

Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Introduction
  3. 1 Examples and Principles
  4. BIG NUMBERS, SMALL PROBABILITIES
  5. BLOOD, MOUNTAINS, AND BURGERS
  6. ARCHIMEDES AND PRACTICALLY INFINITE NUMBERS
  7. THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE AND MOZART'S WALTZES
  8. TRIPLE-SCOOP CONES AND VON NEUMANN'S TRICK
  9. JULIUS CAESAR AND YOU
  10. 2 Probability and Coincidence
  11. SOME BIRTHDAY VS. A PARTICULAR BIRTHDAY
  12. CHANCE ENCOUNTERS
  13. A STOCK-MARKET SCAM
  14. EXPECTED VALUES: FROM BLOOD TESTING TO CHUCK-A-LUCK
  15. CHOOSING A SPOUSE
  16. COINCIDENCE AND THE LAW
  17. FAIR COINS AND LIFE'S WINNERS AND LOSERS
  18. THE HOT HAND AND THE CLUTCH HITTER
  19. 3 Pseudoscience
  20. INNUMERACY, FREUD, AND PSEUDOSCIENCE
  21. PARAPSYCHOLOGY
  22. PREDICTIVE DREAMS
  23. LI'L OL' ME AND THE STARS
  24. EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE, YES; VISITORS IN UFOS, NO
  25. FRAUDULENT MEDICAL TREATMENTS
  26. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY, BLACKJACK, AND DRUG TESTING
  27. NUMEROLOGY
  28. LOGIC AND PSEUDOSCIENCE
  29. 4 Whence Innumeracy?
  30. REMEMBRANCE OF INNUMERACIES PAST
  31. SECONDARY, COLLEGE, AND GRADUATE EDUCATION
  32. INNUMERACY AND THE TENDENCY TO PERSONALIZE
  33. THE UBIQUITY OF FILTERING AND COINCIDENCE
  34. DECISIONS AND FRAMING QUESTIONS
  35. MATH ANXIETY
  36. ROMANTIC MISCONCEPTIONS
  37. DIGRESSION: A LOGARITHMIC SAFETY INDEX
  38. 5 Statistics, Trade-Offs, and Society
  39. PRIORITIES—INDIVIDUAL VS. SOCIETAL
  40. LAISSEZ-FAIRE: ADAM SMITH OR THOMAS HOBBES
  41. BIRTHDAYS, DEATH DAYS, AND ESP
  42. TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS: FROM POLITICS TO PASCAL'S WAGER
  43. POLLING WITH CONFIDENCE
  44. OBTAINING PERSONAL INFORMATION
  45. TWO THEORETICAL RESULTS
  46. CORRELATION AND CAUSATION
  47. BREAST CANCER, MUGGINGS, AND WAGES: SIMPLE STATISTICAL MISTAKES
  48. ODDS AND ADDENDA

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