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The cover of Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets

Annie Duke, 2018

Annie Duke uses poker to show how luck obscures decision quality, and how to test beliefs, learn from results, invite dissent, and plan for uncertain futures.

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6 parts, about 19 minutes to read.

Why read it

  • Separate decision quality from outcome, and spot resulting, the habit of judging a choice only by how it turned out
  • Treat beliefs as bets with a confidence level, and sort outcomes into skill and luck rather than claiming wins and blaming luck for losses
  • Build a decision group with accountability and diverse views, then use a premortem, backcasting and precommitment against future impulse

Who it is for

  • Managers who judge a team's choices by results alone
  • Investors, founders and others making high stakes calls under uncertainty
  • People who replay a bad result and blame themselves or luck

What the summary covers

  1. Decisions and Outcomes4 min
  2. Every Choice Places a Bet3 min
  3. Learning from What Happens3 min
  4. People Who Help Us Think2 min
  5. Rules for Useful Dissent3 min
  6. Recruiting Future and Past Selves4 min

Recommended by

  • Charles DuhiggAuthor of The Power of Habit
    Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk.
  • Philip E. TetlockAuthor of Superforecasting
    An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights.
  • Seth GodinAuthor of The Icarus Deception
    Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good.
  • Howard MarksCochairman of Oaktree Capital Management
  • Cass SunsteinCoauthor of Nudge
    Duke's discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity.
  • Maria KonnikovaAuthor of The Confidence Game and Mastermind
    Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions.

About the author

  • Annie DukeFormer professional poker player and author on decision making
    • She grew up in Concord, New Hampshire, where her father taught English literature at St. Paul's School.
    • She studied English and psychology at Columbia University, in its first class that admitted women.
    • She did doctoral work in psychology at the University of Pennsylvania on a National Science Foundation fellowship but left in 1991 before defending her dissertation.
    • She won a World Series of Poker gold bracelet in 2004.
    • She won the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the National Heads Up Poker Championship in 2010.
    • In 2007 she cofounded the nonprofit Ante Up for Africa with actor Don Cheadle.
    • She returned to the University of Pennsylvania in 2022 and earned her PhD in cognitive psychology in June 2023.
    • She has written two books on decision making, Thinking in Bets and How to Decide.

Read it alongside

  • Goes deeperThe Scout Mindset

    Annie Duke notes that skill at reasoning can help build a persuasive case for what we already want to believe. Julia Galef adds that soldier mindset protects six vital needs, so training in critical thinking has shown little promise on its own.

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