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The cover of The Scout Mindset

The Scout Mindset

Julia Galef, 2021

Why do some people see clearly while others fool themselves? Julia Galef shows how to want the truth, hold beliefs with calibrated confidence and change your mind without shame.

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17 parts, about 24 minutes to read.

Why read it

  • Contrasts the soldier, who defends beliefs, with the scout, who wants an accurate map, and shows why seeing clearly pays
  • Gives practical tests for catching your own motivated reasoning, calibrating confidence and changing your mind without shame
  • Argues you can stay motivated, persuasive and at peace without deceiving yourself, drawing on research and vivid cases

Who it is for

  • Founders and managers making bets under uncertainty
  • People who find it hard to admit being wrong
  • Readers who want to argue less and think better

What the summary covers

  1. Introduction1 min
  2. Two types of thinking2 min
  3. What the soldier is protecting1 min
  4. Why truth is more valuable than we realize2 min
  5. Signs of a scout1 min
  6. Noticing bias2 min
  7. How sure are you?1 min
  8. Coping with reality2 min
  9. Motivation without self deception2 min
  10. Influence without overconfidence1 min
  11. How to be wrong2 min
  12. Lean in to confusion1 min
  13. Escape your echo chamber1 min
  14. How beliefs become identities1 min
  15. Hold your identity lightly2 min
  16. A scout identity1 min
  17. Conclusion1 min

Recommended by

  • Annie DukeAuthor of Thinking in Bets
    A must-read for anyone looking be more rational in their choices.
  • Philip TetlockAuthor of Superforecasting
    Drawing on her extensive knowledge of the scientific literature and of popular culture, Julia Galef explores the remarkable human capacity for self-deception—and shows us how we can catch ourselves in the act of fooling ourselves.
  • Johann HariAuthor of Lost Connections
    If you read this superb book, you will think and see more clearly, and be a wiser human being.
  • Dylan MatthewsFormer senior correspondent at Vox
    I’ve learned more about how to think and reason well from Julia Galef than from almost anyone.
  • Philip TetlockAuthor of Superforecasting
    Drawing on her extensive knowledge of the scientific literature and of popular culture, Julia Galef explores the remarkable human capacity for self-deception—and shows us how we can catch ourselves in the act of fooling ourselves.

About the author

  • Julia GalefWriter and speaker on rationality, cofounder of the Center for Applied Rationality
    • Born 4 July 1983 in Silver Spring, Maryland
    • BA in statistics from Columbia University
    • Hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast 2010 to 2021
    • Cofounded and became president of the Center for Applied Rationality in 2012
    • Elected fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry in 2015; left CFAR in 2016 to focus on writing
    • First book The Scout Mindset published by Penguin in 2021

Read it alongside

  • Goes deeperThinking, Fast and Slow

    Galef cites doctors' complete certainty being wrong in 40 percent of cases and asks readers to treat confidence as a prediction; Kahneman explains that confidence follows how coherent a story is more closely than how sufficient the evidence is.

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