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The cover of The Black Swan

The Black Swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007

Why rare, unforeseeable shocks shape history, markets and our own lives, why experts and bell curves keep missing them, and how to limit the damage and even gain from them.

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18 parts, about 34 minutes to read.

Why read it

  • Argues that rare, unpredictable shocks shape history, markets and careers far more than the normal events we study and model
  • Teaches you to stop forecasting the unforeseeable: limit exposure to ruinous surprises and stay open to lucky ones
  • A former trader's combative, anecdote rich attack on bell curve thinking and the experts who trust it

Who it is for

  • Investors and risk managers who rely on financial models
  • Planners and forecasters asked to predict the future
  • Readers drawn to probability, luck and uncertainty

What the summary covers

  1. On the Plumage of Birds2 min
  2. The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic1 min
  3. Yevgenia's Black Swan2 min
  4. One Thousand and One Days2 min
  5. Confirmation Shmonfirmation!2 min
  6. The Narrative Fallacy2 min
  7. Living in the Antechamber of Hope2 min
  8. Casanova's Unfailing Luck3 min
  9. The Uncertainty of the Nerd2 min
  10. The Scandal of Prediction2 min
  11. Looking for Bird Poop2 min
  12. What Do You Do If You Cannot Predict?2 min
  13. From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back2 min
  14. The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud2 min
  15. The Aesthetics of Randomness2 min
  16. Locke's Madmen2 min
  17. Half and Half1 min
  18. Yevgenia's White Swans1 min

Recommended by

  • Daniel KahnemanNobel laureate
    The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.
  • Chris AndersonAuthor of The Long Tail
    A masterpiece.

About the author

  • Nassim Nicholas TalebEssayist, former option trader and New York University professor
    • Born 12 September 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon
    • Parents: Nagib Taleb, oncologist and haematologist, and Minerva Ghosn, anthropology researcher
    • The Lebanese Civil War (from 1975) cost his family much of its wealth and political influence
    • Schooled at the Grand Lycée Franco Libanais in Beirut, then university in Paris
    • MBA from Wharton, PhD from the University of Paris
    • Senior trading positions at major banks; ran his own derivatives firm
    • Retired Distinguished Professor, Finance and Risk Engineering, NYU Tandon
    • Relation to topic: 21 years as a risk taker before researching probability; Skin in the Game is the fifth volume of the Incerto

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