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Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd

How do people make good decisions under time pressure when they cannot weigh every cue?

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At a glance

Author
Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd

Why read it

  • You will see how a simple decision tree with at most three variables can classify heart attack patients by risk
  • You will question the common sense that the best decision comes from ranking and combining every cue
  • You will find that a little ignorance can help, since simply recognizing one option and not the other can point to the better choice

Who it is for

  • A manager who feels buried in data before every decision
  • A doctor or nurse making fast calls under pressure
  • A student of psychology and decision making

Contents

  1. The ABC Research Group
  2. Part I: The Research Agenda
  3. 1 Fast and Frugal Heuristics: The Adaptive Toolbox
  4. Part II: Ignorance-Based Decision Making
  5. 2 The Recognition Heuristic: How Ignorance Makes Us Smart
  6. 3 Can Ignorance Beat the Stock Market?
  7. Part III: One-Reason Decision Making
  8. 4 Betting on One Good Reason: The Take The Best Heuristic
  9. 5 How Good Are Simple Heuristics?
  10. 6 Why Does One-Reason Decision Making Work?: A Case Study in Ecological Rationality
  11. 7 When Do People Use Simple Heuristics, and How Can We Tell?
  12. 8 Bayesian Benchmarks for Fast and Frugal Heuristics
  13. Part IV: Beyond Choice: Memory, Estimation, and Categorization
  14. 9 Hindsight Bias: A Price Worth Paying for Fast and Frugal Memory
  15. 10 Quick Estimation: Letting the Environment Do the Work
  16. 11 Categorization by Elimination: Using Few Cues to Choose
  17. Part V: Social Intelligence
  18. 12 How Motion Reveals Intention: Categorizing Social Interactions
  19. 13 From Pride and Prejudice to Persuasion: Satisficing in Mate Search
  20. 14 Parental Investment by Simple Decision Rules
  21. Part VI: A Look Around, A Look Back, A Look Ahead
  22. 15 Demons Versus Heuristics in Artificial Intelligence, Behavioral Ecology, and Economics
  23. 16 What We Have Learned (So Far)
  24. Name Index
  25. A
  26. B
  27. C
  28. D
  29. E
  30. F
  31. G
  32. H
  33. J
  34. K
  35. L
  36. M
  37. N
  38. O
  39. P
  40. Q
  41. R
  42. S
  43. T
  44. U
  45. V
  46. W
  47. Y
  48. Z
  49. Subject Index
  50. A
  51. B
  52. C
  53. D
  54. E
  55. F
  56. G
  57. H
  58. I
  59. J
  60. K

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