Knowingo
The cover of The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver, 2012

Learn why so many forecasts fail, from credit ratings to earthquakes, and how thinking in probabilities and updating on new evidence can make your own predictions less wrong.

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15 parts, about 32 minutes to read.

Why read it

  • Shows why forecasts fail, from rating agencies that missed mortgage risk to experts whose predictions barely beat chance
  • Teaches Bayesian thinking through plain cases such as a mammogram result, updating belief as evidence arrives
  • Compares forecasting in weather, earthquakes, baseball, poker, markets and climate, and what honest, calibrated predictions look like

Who it is for

  • Readers who consume forecasts in news, markets or politics
  • Analysts and data workers wary of Big Data hype
  • Curious readers new to probability and statistics

What the summary covers

  1. The Prediction Problem2 min
  2. A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction2 min
  3. Foxes and Hedgehogs2 min
  4. Stats and Scouts2 min
  5. Weather: Chaos, Judgment and Honesty2 min
  6. Earthquakes: Mistaking Noise for Signal2 min
  7. Economics: How to Drown in Three Feet of Water2 min
  8. Epidemics: All Models Are Wrong2 min
  9. Bayes's Theorem: Less and Less Wrong3 min
  10. Chess: The Machine That Blinked2 min
  11. Poker: The Water Level2 min
  12. Markets: Usually Right, Sometimes Very Wrong2 min
  13. Climate: A Healthy Skepticism3 min
  14. Terrorism: The Unfamiliar and the Improbable2 min
  15. Conclusion: Knowing What We Don't Know2 min

Recommended by

  • Richard ThalerNobel laureate in economics
    Yogi Berra was right: ‘forecasting is hard, especially about the future.’ In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next.
  • Rachel MaddowHost of The Rachel Maddow Show and author of Blowout
    Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate’s influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers—the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read—totally engrossing.

About the author

  • Nate SilverAmerican statistician and political analyst, founder of FiveThirtyEight
    • Graduated with honors in economics from the University of Chicago in 2000.
    • Spent three and a half years as a transfer pricing consultant at KPMG in Chicago, building his baseball forecasting system on the side.
    • Sold his PECOTA baseball projection system to Baseball Prospectus in 2003 and joined it as a writer.
    • Launched the political blog FiveThirtyEight.com in March 2008.
    • His final 2008 forecast picked the winner in 49 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
    • Time named him one of the world's 100 most influential people in 2009.
    • Wrote this book while his blog ran at The New York Times.
    • Now writes the Substack newsletter Silver Bulletin and founded the website FiveThirtyEight.

Read it alongside

  • Goes deeperThe Fifth Risk

    Nate Silver shows how weather forecasts improve; Michael Lewis explains why residents may still ignore warnings and how trusted voices can prompt action.

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